Libya, Iran, and the Limits of Airpower

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For the last few weeks, U.S. policy in Iran has been following a pattern reminiscent of the war it fought 15 years ago in Libya. That was the last time that the United States conducted an air war to change a regime in a large, oil-rich, and Muslim country.

If Iran continues to follow Libya’s pattern, then the world is in for long and dangerous days ahead. Now that the regime has survived the initial U.S. and Israeli salvo, Washington has no good options. Attacking civilian infrastructure, as U.S. President Donald Trump recently threatened to do, would end any chance of a pro-U.S. uprising in Tehran. Inserting ground forces to stem the attacks on energy markets would only compound the war’s cost. Finally, negotiating a cease-fire, while still the best choice available, would publicly confirm the limits of the Trump’s power at home and abroad.

For the last few weeks, U.S. policy in Iran has been following a pattern reminiscent of the war it fought 15 years ago in Libya. That was the last time that the United States conducted an air war to change a regime in a large, oil-rich, and Muslim country.

If Iran continues to follow Libya’s pattern, then the world is in for long and dangerous days ahead. Now that the regime has survived the initial U.S. and Israeli salvo, Washington has no good options. Attacking civilian infrastructure, as U.S. President Donald Trump recently threatened to do, would end any chance of a pro-U.S. uprising in Tehran. Inserting ground forces to stem the attacks on energy markets would only compound the war’s cost. Finally, negotiating a cease-fire, while still the best choice available, would publicly confirm the limits of the Trump’s power at home and abroad.

Amid the Arabuprisings of 2011, the world watched as Libyan dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi threatened to massacre civilians protesting in the populous city of Benghazi. U.S. President Barack Obama, urged on by France and the United Kingdom, decided to begin what would become a monthslong military campaign to prevent slaughter and oust the Qaddafi regime.

The intervention got off to a dramatic start on March 19, when allied aircraft and U.S. Tomahawks pounded Libya’s air defenses and destroyed the regime’s tanks outside of Benghazi. Within a few short days, Qaddafi’s military was flattened, NATO was galvanized, and the protesters were safe. But what was Washington supposed to do now?

Many U